As the 2024 presidential race heats up, new polling data from AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster of the 2020 election, is making waves. CEO Andrei Roman recently revealed that Donald Trump has a commanding 70% chance of victory based on their latest data. In a conversation between Roman and AtlasIntel’s Head of US Coverage, Pedro Azevedo, Roman pointed to the numbers and noted that Trump’s advantage has solidified despite the highly charged political environment.
Roman explained that Trump has built-in advantages that Kamala Harris, Trump’s Democratic rival in the race, would find difficult to erode. AtlasIntel’s recent poll showed Trump ahead by around 3 points nationally, a margin that Roman said is significant, especially in swing states where momentum has appeared to shift in the former president’s favor. Roman discussed how the media’s overwhelmingly positive coverage of Harris, including high-profile endorsements like that of pop star Taylor Swift, still has not managed to turn the tide against Trump.
“I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%,” Roman said. “What more could Kamala do or could her campaign do to reverse the advantage that Trump has nationally? And I don’t really see it at this point.” He pointed out that even though Harris is well-positioned, with media backing and favorable public figures on her side, Trump continues to maintain his lead.
Roman also acknowledged the fast-paced and volatile nature of U.S. politics, pointing out that major events, such as the recent assassination attempt on Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign, tend to lose public attention quickly. “People forget fast about things, and they’re sort of triggered by new events all the time,” Roman explained.
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